ABSTRACT
The cholera outbreak in Yemen, spanning from April 2017 to March 2018, represents one of the most severe and widespread epidemics in recent history. Understanding the dynamics of such outbreaks is critical for improving disease prediction, control measures, and resource allocation. This study focuses on the parameter estimation of a mathematical model designed to describe the cholera transmission dynamics during this period. Using a combination of compartmental models and available epidemiological data, we aim to estimate key parameters such as transmission rates, recovery rates, and case fatality rates, which are essential for assessing the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Our mathematical findings show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1, and hence, the system undergoes a transcritical bifurcation. The parameters’ estimation results provide estimation for R0 for almost all Yemen’s governates based on data from 2017–2018 outbreak.
KEYWORDS: Cholera, Parameter estimation, Basic reproduction number, Bifurcation and stability analysis.
2025 – The European Physical Journal Plus